How to survive trading Bank Nifty for 9 years with a simple system?


Hello friends, welcome back to my channel
once again. So I feel that you are waiting for this webinar
for a long time. Because in the first video of the year I have
shown you at a simple Bank Nifty trading strategy. And I have shown you 2 years back test. That video has got a lots of love from you
all guys, from all of my subscribers. so I was encouraged to record a second part
of that particular strategy where I am going to show you much more test. And I’ll also show you some reactions, some
comments that I have thought that I will discuss with you. Because few are the mistakes that you are
still making and few are the negatives that you all are having. So unless and until your flushing out all
those negatives from your inside or you are stopping doing the same mistake, you are not
going to get success from the market. Before that I will just tell you the strategy
once again because for those who have not seen that first video I am going to show you
the strategy in a nutshell. But before that let me give your short intro
of mine. Hello friends, I am Indrajit Mukherjee from
StockManiacs.net. If you want to grow your wealth from the stock
and commodity markets hit the subscribe button and hit the bell notification icon. You can also send me your stock market related
queries through WhatsApp in my number +91-9674321856. So friends, the strategy was very simple. We will just check the first 30 minutes high
or low of Bank Nifty, of Bank Nifty future to be precise. So what you will do, first 30 minutes high
and low gets noted. The market opens at 9.15. So, 30 minutes means 9.45. So 9.45 high gets noted and 9:45 low gets
noted. Then we’ll switch it to a 5 minute chart. And the strategy is simple. If a 5 minute candle pierces above high line,
first 30 minute high line, it is a buy. And if a candle, 5 minute candle closes below
the low line, the first 30 minute low line, it is a sell. So strategy is very simple. And where to keep the stop loss? If we are in a buy position, we will wait
for the market to close or we will wait for the sell to be triggered. If the sell gets triggered that is a stop
for us. So that means we are getting stopped up and
we are actually reversing the trade. Similarly, if we are in a failed trade, either
we will wait for the market to close to exit or we will exit if a buy gets triggered. So that means our stops is where the reverse
point is there. And we will reverse only once a day. So not more than once we are going to reverse. And we will exit at the market close just
before our broker actually closes the trade forcefully. So we will exit at 3:15 wherever be the market
price, be it profit, be it loss, we will exit at that particular point. So whatever be the price be it profit, be
it loss. So we’ll exit at 3:15 before our broker closes
the trade. Now this strategy is quite simple. The entry point is simple, the exit point
is simple. And the profit booking level is also simple. There is no stop loss, whether we are going
to reverse the trade when a price is not going at our direction. So that means it is a simple system. And I have shown you in the last back test
that we have got profits over 2018 and 2019. Now, let me show you some mistakes or some
negativity still you are facing. Let me show you some comments. So the first scenario, I have received a whats
app message from a user. He is actually following the strategy, and
he has shown me a screen shot of his trade. So he got profit that day. And dear user, if you are seeing my video,
do not feel that I am actually flushing out your name, because I am just using your example
and your mistake so that others do not face the same mistake. So he has got profit. So he has entered as per the criteria and
he has sent me the message that traded with just one lot since it is my first day and
came out of the trade. And he has once again ask me should I have
waited? That means actually he has entered as per
the criteria but he has not exited as per the criteria. His mind actually controlled his trade. This is not done my dear friends. If you are following the strategy, you need
to follow it very sincerely and rigorously. Whatever be the result of last trade, whatever
be the result of last 5 trades, whatever be the result of last 10 trades, you need to
follow that particular strategy. So you need not to come out if you are getting
some profit or you are getting some loss. You need to wait till 3.15. That was the first rule of the particular
strategy. Now I’ll show you the second comment. So, here is one Mr. Prakash Bhatia, he has
told me exit trade at 3.15 not 3.50, please improve your Hinglish words talks. And one again he made a comment, it is third
January and not thard January. So actually he is very negative minded guy. He is trying to make come off topic comments. So these kind of people are there. I like them but this guys actually spread
the negativity among the others, among than the other traders who are actually willing
to learn. So guys there will be people like this in
your life also but you need to ignore them because the ignorance is bliss. So this type of thing, this type of mistake
that our people are making you need to learn from their mistakes. Now, I will show you a third example. Another person has send me this message. He has sent me that your strategy is very
poor poor risk management, suggest good things so that people does not lose their hard earned
money. Your strategy is like gambling. Now my dear friends, my is having clear cut
entry, my strategy is having clear cut exit. And in case the trade does not perform well,
there is also another exit or reversing model. So this strategy is not like gambling because
I have already proven it with last 2 years data, with the data of 2018 and 2019. So if someone tells you this is the negativity
that most people having that anything if a person tells that this strategy works, he
is started thinking that this person is actually lying. So that is not the case my dear friends. You need to come out the negativity. So I will show you the example of a person,
Chetan Kumar. So Chetan if you are listening, do not think
that I am actually bullying you rather I am discussing with the problem that you have
faced and the same problem may be with others. Chetan has traded one day, and he has booked
300 point loss in Bank Nifty Future. So, now, he is telling me how he can handle
today’s movement that means that day’s movement. So, he has given the buy price of Bank Nifty
Futures and sell price of Bank Nifty Futures also. And the date was 10th of January, 2020. Because he has 300 points loss. Now, Chetan and the other players who are
listening, new players who are not acquainted with Bank Nifty. Guys if one day, there can be 500 points gain,
another day there can be 300 points loss. The next day there also can be loss. But once a big day comes it will cover all
your losses. And you will not be bankrupt if you are having
enough money with you to support your margin. So do not just go with your margin, if you
are following a strategy, a trend following strategy, you need to support your margin
with extra funds. And then only you are going to make consistent
money from the market. If you are undercapitalized, no one can save
you from being bankrupt. So guys, I have shown you four examples and
the lesson that we have learnt from this is number one you need to be positive. If you are negative, from the trade, whenever
you have taken the trade. If you start thinking, I lose, I lose, I lose,
I lose, I cannot earn money, I cannot earn money, I cannot earn money, I cannot earn
money, ultimately you will not be able to make money. If you are following a strategy, if you are
trying to learn a strategy, and if someone tells you this strategy is scam. And you started believing that, yes that strategy
may be a scam. So ultimately, you cannot make money.There
are no holy grails in the stock market my dear friend. You need to make a strategy Holy Grail. it is you who can make a strategy holy grail
because there are strategies, there are proven strategies. See why people do not make money, why 80%
of traders lose money because they not believe in themselves. They do not believe in the strategy. And they trade this strategy for two days,
that strategy for two days, losses in this strategy, losses in that strategy. And ultimately, quit the stock market and
start telling that yes stock market is gambling. So whenever I am showing you an example, with
a serious example for the last two years. That strategy has worked for the last two
years. So that means you need to believe the strategy. I am not telling you, you blindly believe
my strategy, there are other strategies also. But any one strategy you need to follow. Unless and until you are following a particular
strategy, you are not going to make money. If you follow a strategy one day, another
strategy another day, ultimately you are not going to make money. And these kinds of negative thinkers, negative
commenters will always be there. So guys, believe a strategy, believe in yourself,
they only you are going to make money. And the most biggest mistake that the stock
traders make are they are undercapitalized. So any trend following strategy will have
series of drawdowns. That means it can have series of losses. But you need to have enough money to support
your margin. If you do not have money, do not trade in
the stock market. Because stock market is for them who can support
their margin with extra funds. If you have very less amount of money, it
will be gone my dear friend, no one can save you. You will be bankrupt and this negative commenters
will actually win. They will be able to prove that you have been
bankrupt due to the strategy. No my dear friend, you are not bankrupt due
to the strategy, you are bankrupt because you have very little money. So money is needed. For any business money is needed, capital
is needed, same like stock market. Stock market is not a gate rich with system
rather it needs capital to start a business. And, be successful in the business. So if you want to be successful in the stock
market, have enough capital to support your bad days. Good days make capital for you. And you need to support your bad days with
extra margin. So that’s all my dear friend. Now, I’ll show you this particular Bank
Nifty Strategy, how it worked from 2011. Yes many guys have told me you are only showing
two years back test, show more. Someone is telling me, show at least 5 years. I am going to show you back test starting
from 2011. So that is last 9 years back test. And in the nine year, there were ups, there
were down, there were plain market. Everything was there. So if this strategy has survived in the last
9 years, it will also survive in the future. We can hope but in the stock market nothing
can be told that this is sacrosanct, so nothing is sacrosanct. We just assume that as it has worked with
the previous 9 years, it will work in the future 9 years also. So let me show you the back test from 2011. So now, see my dear friends. This is Bank Nifty Future chart. And we are having this is monthly chart. and
we are having data since 2011. You can see 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 and 2019. So last 9 years data we are having. This is the monthly chart I’ve shown you. Now, I’ll convert it to a intraday chart. So let me convert it to a 5 minute chart. So you can see there can be three possibilities. One the trade will be triggered on the downside. And the trade will be triggered on the upside,
and you can make loss on both the sides. You can see as this happened on 31st of December
2019. There can be days like this when you will
get trade triggered on the only one side and ultimately you are exiting in profit. So there can be this kind of situations. Suppose, hear the trade has been triggered
on the down side. And we have exited in small profit. And there can be some big profit days like
this. Suppose this type of situation can happen. Trade has been triggered on the downside,
and market has fallen a lot. And you have made a lot of money. So these three kind of situations can be there. You can make some money. You can make both side loss or you can make
one side loss. So these three situations will be there. Now, we will be back testing. And in that back test, we will see how the
system has performed in the last 9 years. So this is the back test window. Now, my dear friends, one thing is sure, that
in this back test, this will calculate net profit minus net loss. So whatever profit you are making, it has
actually discounted all the losses that you are maiking. So whatever profit comes, that is after the
losses. So I will show you the back test. This is the back test parameters. We are starting with initial equity of 2500
and we will actually go long and short. The period it is 5 minute because we are trading
on the 5minute candle. We are taking the entry or exit as per the
30 minute high or low. But the trade is happening on the 5 minute
candle. And we are also calculating the brokerage. Brokerage is in percent and that is 0.01%. That means 1 paisa brokerage is calculated. So if the negative thinkers come and tell
you that this guy will bankrupt you because of the brokerage is not calculated. And the broker will only be rich, you are
not going to be rich, so that is not the case my dear friend. We are also calculating the brokerage in 1paisa. And 1paisa is enough. Because nowadays, most of the brokers charges
you 10 rupees or 20 rupees per trade. So after adding all the commissions and the
government charges, 1 paisa will cover all your brokerages. So I am clicking on ok. And this is the Bank Nifty Future chart. So here the current is selected that means
it is backtest on Bank Nifty Futures. And my first date is 1 1 2011. And my last date is 12 31 2019. That means the last day of december 2019. So we will back test, click on back test. So we have started with 2500 rupees capital
and you can see in the back test only one share has been traded. Only one share. You can see the number of share is always
one. The number of share is always one. So that means we are trading, so that means
we are trading only one share of Bank Nifty. Only one piece of Bank Nifty. Why we are doing this? To actually calculate how much point we have
made. Because if I make a profit of 100 rupees on
one share, that means I am making 100 points. That’s why I am making 100 rupees profit. So whatever profit I am making, that is my
point gain. So I am actually testing 1 share, only one
share because I want to know the profit or the points earned in that particular 9 years. So you can see the first trade that has started
on 3 1 2011. So on January 2011, we have started. So we are covering 2012, we are covering 2013,
we are covering 2014, we are covering 2015, we are covering 2016, we are covering 2017,
we are covering 2018, we are covering 2019. And last day was 31 12 2019. And you can see in the last day of 2019 both
ways we have lost. Because we have lost some money in the long
trade as well as we have lost some money in the short trade. So both ways there are losses. So everything is plain and simple, everything
is clear here. So the back test cover everything. Backtest is having the profits. The backtest is having the negative days also. So you can see there are many negative days. So you can see these negative days are covered. If we are making some profit, that is after
deducting all these negative days. Now, I will show you the report. So our initial capital was 2500. So initial capital was 2500, and the ending
capital is 33998. That means our net profit is 31498. So net profit means net points, so net profit
means net point means we are making almost 31500 points profits in this 9 years. So this thing makes very clear that my dear
friends as we are trading only on one piece of Bank Nifty. We are for the testing purpose, we are trading
only one piece of Bank Nifty. Whatever profit we are making that is the
point gain. So the net profit percentage is 1259% and
so on. Now, there are all trades are 3070 trades. Winners 1335, so that means winners are near
44% winners. So not even 45%. Still we are making this much of profits. Now losers are more losers are almost 57%
losers. And maximum consecutive loss you can see my
dear friends, 10 maximum consecutive loss. So you need to know that sometimes we will
have this kind of losses. In the last 9 years we had 10 maximum consecutive
losses. So that means we can have series of loss. Still you have to have faith on the system
on yourself and maximum consecutive wins were 7. But you need to understand this that there
can be 10 maximum consecutive losses, even more in the future, who knows. Because in the last 9 years data, we have
seen we have got 10 maximum consecutive losses. But there can be more. So and maximum trade drawdown was 647 rupees. Maximum trade percentage drawdown is 4.55
that means almost 5% is the maximum trade percentage drawdown. And maximum system drawdown is 3032.59 %, maximum
system percentage drawdown is 32.35%. So that means if you are having hundred rupees,
the maximum system drawdown. So after all the consecutive losses, maximum
system drawdown that has happened in the last 9 years that is 32.35%. So you’ll need to have at least 50% more
capital to support your margin. 32% we are even keeping 18% more. So if your margin required is 100000 rupees,
you need to keep at least 150000 rupees to support these kind of drawdowns. Then only you will succeed. So my dear friends, you can see if you can
stick to this strategy, you will ultimately win. Now I’ll show you how the strategy has performed
over the years. So this is the chart. So my dear friends you can see the strategy
was going steady 2011 12 13 14, in 15 16. The curve is a bit straight kind of curve,
17 also but in 18 it has actually picked up. In 19, it has done massive. So every year will not be like 2019. But still the strategy has performed quite
well over the last 9 years. And my dear friends, you can see the strategy
has given continuous yields over these years. Now you will say that the first year it has
given 83% profits. But why the profit percentage is not like
that in the last year? Because last year has given a lot of jump
that is due to first year we have started only 2500 rupees capital. But slowly the capital is increased. So this is the percentage gain on the increase
capital. But we have seen that over all the years every
year was a winner. So no year you have got loss. And the lowest profit earned that was in 2017. So these kind of years can also be there my
dear friends. Some years will be like this where you will
work all the years but you will not be able to make so much of gain. But there will be other years when it will
actually makeup all those losing years or all those cost to cost years. Some months will be there which will be losing,
some months will be there which will be losing and still my dear friends if you believe in
a system, this system is ultimately make you profitable. So you need to believe on yourself, you need
to believe on the system and you need to throw those negative commenters out. Plain and simple. So my dear friends I feel you have now understood
that believing a system and believing on yourself is very much necessary in the stock market. So next time if someone comes and will tell
you that you will be bankrupt in the stock market, do not believe him because if you
believe on yourself and you believe a proven strategy, you will be ultimately successful. I am not telling you that you follow this
strategy but any strategy that has been tested over-the-years, you need to believe that strategy. And whatever be the result of last few trades
you need to stick to that strategy. And you should not be undercapitalized, you
should have enough money to support your bad days. Then only you are going to make consistent
money from the stock market. And for those who are actually wanting this
AFL from me, I am going to write a blog post was very soon. And I will attach the blog post in the video
description from there you can download this simple AFL. So check back in the video description very
soon. And you will be getting your amibroker AFL
from the block post. So friends, I have completed today’s webinar. If you like today’s video please do not forget
to hit the like button. Please also do not forget to share it with
your friends because if you share it someone else can also be benefited. If you have any queries just ask me in the
comments I will try to answer you as early as possible. Friends thanks a lot for watching this webinar
till the end. Bye bye.

42 thoughts on “How to survive trading Bank Nifty for 9 years with a simple system?

  1. Hi . . Video is simply great…and very inspiring….I have a simple bank nifty stategy…can you propose some free tools to back test it ??

  2. Sir please suggest. What is the margin I require to support my trade whole year according to this strategy for trading 1 lot.

  3. Dear Mr.Mukherjee, Really superb .I tested my self in live chart It's really works. But I have a small confusion that regarding the stop loss. As per the strategy can I keep the stop loss of 30 min high for sell and 30 min low for buy please clear my confusion

  4. One query for last two days my bn Bo is not working. Either price going below without hitting sell order or sell order and sl order simultaneously getting hit. Any idea regarding it. Basically it is not possible for me to sit before screen whole day. Thank you

  5. Due to fever or marriage in families it is not possible to trade every day.

    So monthly consistent profit earnings strategy need to be there.

  6. Dear Sir. This is awesome!! But I have a small query. It will be great if you can help me with an answer.
    Suppose I go on a short sell today as the candle after 9:45 AM has closed below the low of first 30 mins candle, what will be my stop loss, sir? Also, what will be my action if the candles reverse and enters and close above the low limit?

  7. Sir i have a doubt some times the price will reach max for the day and close for the day in low price. In this condition can we exit at max price

  8. Would like to say something,the English you speak is only mother tongue influence which is with every Indian Tamils will have Tamil influence ,Punjabis will have Punjabi influence and so on ,and one person has commented you on that which is very bad ,commenting on mother tongue influence is something like insulting the mother .and if someone is insulting the mother of others is like insulting his own mother.

  9. How much amount of margin is required in general, for Trading in Bank nifty futures- % wise of future's value? Are there any SEBI rules & regulators for working out of margin money?

  10. There will be always people who criticize the one who is helping others . I have not tested this strategy yet but really appreciate your attitude on sharing this to all people without any charges .. Thanks lot for sharing the strategy with back test explanation .

  11. Can you please confirm if stockmaniacs offer Algo to trade BankNifty future as per the strategy ? If yes, what are the charges? How to go about it?

  12. Sir …
    Your strategy is theoretically ok..But in practical how is it and capital required as per your strategy only banknifty intraday..

  13. Nice video sir.. Can i start trading on it or wait for more videos I mean for filter videos which u will going to post in future???

  14. Aap sirf logo ko murkh bana rahe hai..5minute ke time frame me aap pichle 2011 se candle chart par dikha hi nahi sakte hai..yes monthly chart par dikha sakte hai..

  15. Hi sir, thank you. Would you please tell, at what interval time, you will take yours profits out( ones in a month or once in a year)

  16. Thanks for strategy, I am in back testing and almost completed fully 2019 and got good results with some minor tuning in strategy and applying some strict rules . I back tested manually with the chart and stoploss also fixed with some calculations. Good working by back tested. And waiting for adding fund to apply in live chart to bare the consecutive loses .

  17. Thank you Sir. This is an excellent video. I was using a variation of this strategy and entering on the close of 15 min candle instead of 5min candle. I had back-tested manually for one year. But began to doubt my strategy since there were a few bad days. Your video is a confidence booster. It takes a will of steel to withstand 10 consecutive losses and come out successful. Will try to build that discipline.

    Q: can you recommend any trade filtering mechanism that can help improve accuracy of the method. Since success in this strategy also depends on being able to trade all signals,which is difficult at times having a day job. I have tried filtering based on MA, Supertrend,RSI but did not get much success

  18. I think it is in a very bad taste to comment on someones English accent as long as it is grammatically correct. Does this fellow talk Queen's English or what. It is just astupid comment. Ignore him and delete him from your list Indrajit. Your English is better than 90% Indians I am telling this being educated in UK.

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